Changchun YaTai 1-2 Chengdu Qianbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
19%
3.64
Away
55%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.05
2-3 Goals
33%
1.84
4-5 Goals
29%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.05 — our 28% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.33
1/2
4%
22.3
1/X
5%
14.6
X/1
11%
9.99
X/2
23%
4.14
X/X
9%
5.36
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.13
2/X
5%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+5.1pp
19%
Draw
24%
-5.4pp
55%
Away Win
55%
+0.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.0pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Chengdu Qianbao EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -33%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
273 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 417 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
Crosses 12.9
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Changchun YaTai
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Chengdu Qianbao
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 1.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
245 Passes 350
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-0 HT 1-0 Chengdu Qianbao Chengdu Qianbao ÇİN
14.05.2023 Chengdu Qianbao Chengdu Qianbao 2-2 HT 2-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
07.11.2022 Chengdu Qianbao Chengdu Qianbao 2-2 HT 1-2 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
01.09.2022 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 0-1 HT 0-1 Chengdu Qianbao Chengdu Qianbao ÇİN
08.11.2020 Chengdu Qianbao Chengdu Qianbao 0-3 HT 0-3 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Changchun YaTai
1-2
AWAY Chengdu Qianbao
1.17 xG 1.73
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
145 Passes 397
59% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 36
9 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Changchun YaTai vs Chengdu Qianbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chengdu Qianbao squeezed past Changchun YaTai 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chengdu Qianbao as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Changchun YaTai had 32% of the ball to Chengdu Qianbao's 68%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 1.17 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Changchun YaTai had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Changchun YaTai and 1.00 for Chengdu Qianbao.

What was the final score of Changchun YaTai vs Chengdu Qianbao?

Changchun YaTai 1-2 Chengdu Qianbao in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Changchun YaTai vs Chengdu Qianbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chengdu Qianbao win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Changchun YaTai 26%, draw 19%, Chengdu Qianbao 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chengdu Qianbao), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chengdu Qianbao) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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