Young Boys 4-2 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.43
Over 2.5
58%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.2
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
10%
4.4
X/2
8%
9.13
X/X
6%
6.2
2/1
6%
20.05
2/2
14%
5.98
2/X
9%
14.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.3pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Young Boys EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 27%
+11% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
2.06/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.55
+63% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
24.0 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Young Boys
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Luzern
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.62 xG 1.36
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
324 Passes 239
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 6-1 HT 3-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
13.08.2023 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 1-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
30.04.2023 Young Boys Young Boys 5-1 HT 3-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
05.02.2023 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 1-0 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
13.11.2022 Young Boys Young Boys 3-0 HT 2-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
02.10.2022 Luzern Luzern 1-2 HT 1-1 Young Boys Young Boys İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Young Boys
4-2
AWAY Luzern
1.75 xG 2.58
46% Ball Possession 54%
26 Total Shots 17
11 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
223 Passes 274
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 25
28 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Young Boys vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Young Boys beat Luzern 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Young Boys as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Young Boys had 46% of the ball to Luzern's 54%, shots finished 26-17, expected goals 1.75 to 2.58 — on chances, Luzern could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Young Boys had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Young Boys and 0.83 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Young Boys vs Luzern?

Young Boys 4-2 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Young Boys vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Young Boys win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Young Boys 49%, draw 23%, Luzern 28%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Young Boys), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Young Boys) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
14 Apr 2024
15:15 Basel vs Servette Analysis →
17:30 Stade Ouchy vs Winterthur Analysis →