Naftan Novopolotsk 1-1 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.0
Over 2.5
57%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
14%
11.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.1pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
46%
-3.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
54%
+3.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.2pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 30%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
0.52/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/2.51
-63% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +101% / -49%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Smorgon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 3-0 HT 2-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
07.05.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 1-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
24.05.2020 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-1 HT 0-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
1-1
AWAY Smorgon
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naftan Novopolotsk and Smorgon shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Naftan Novopolotsk at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Naftan Novopolotsk had 48% of the ball to Smorgon's 52%, shots finished 8-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Smorgon led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Naftan Novopolotsk and 0.67 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon?

Naftan Novopolotsk 1-1 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naftan Novopolotsk vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naftan Novopolotsk win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Naftan Novopolotsk 45%, draw 23%, Smorgon 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Naftan Novopolotsk), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Naftan Novopolotsk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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