AGF Aarhus 2-2 Brondby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 14 Apr 2024

AGF Aarhus
2-2 HT 1-1
Brondby
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Denmark - Süperlig – 2023/2024

AGF Aarhus vs Brondby Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
53%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.56
Over 2.5
53%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.37
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
5.09
6+ Goals
7%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
8.53
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
29.5
1/X
6%
17.7
X/1
6%
9.43
X/2
23%
3.64
X/X
14%
4.08
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.31
2/X
4%
16.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 13% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
19%
+4.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
53%
Away Win
55%
-2.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
60%
-13.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
40%
+13.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.3pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AGF Aarhus v Brondby — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Brondby EU Bookmakers 58%
-11% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.24/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.33
-23% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -2%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
221 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 79%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
21.0 Crosses 17.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

AGF Aarhus vs Brondby Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Brondby
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.33 xG 1.15
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
241 Passes 478
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Brondby Brondby 2-1 HT 2-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
07.12.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 Brondby Brondby DAK
06.11.2023 Brondby Brondby 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
17.09.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-3 HT 0-2 Brondby Brondby DAN
04.06.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 3-3 HT 0-2 Brondby Brondby DAN
16.04.2023 Brondby Brondby 1-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN

AGF Aarhus 2-2 Brondby — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
2-2
AWAY Brondby
1.03 xG 0.59
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
307 Passes 419
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
7 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Brondby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus and Brondby shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Brondby at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 44% of the ball to Brondby's 56%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.03 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brondby led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.67 for Brondby.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?

AGF Aarhus 2-2 Brondby in the Denmark - Süperlig on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brondby win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 23%, draw 25%, Brondby 53%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Brondby), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brondby) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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