Lyon 4-3 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Apr 2024

Lyon
4-3 HT 1-0
Brest
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lyon vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.11
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 28% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.79
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
11%
4.55
X/2
11%
7.33
X/X
15%
4.37
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
12%
5.49
2/X
10%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-7.2pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.4pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +21%
1.51/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.35
+10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
17.5 Crosses 18.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Lyon vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Brest
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.27 xG 1.32
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
473 Passes 264
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Brest Brest 1-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
01.02.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-0 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
28.12.2022 Brest Brest 2-4 HT 1-3 Lyon Lyon FR1
20.04.2022 Brest Brest 2-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
07.08.2021 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
19.02.2021 Brest Brest 2-3 HT 0-3 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 4-3 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
4-3
AWAY Brest
2.22 xG 1.72
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 22
8 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 7
321 Passes 313
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 29
26 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon nicked a narrow win over Brest 4-3. Half-time: 1-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 29%) promised a tight game; Lyon found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lyon had 52% of the ball to Brest's 48%, shots finished 16-22, expected goals 2.22 to 1.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lyon and 1.33 for Brest.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Brest?

Lyon 4-3 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lyon 39%, draw 32%, Brest 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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