Hajduk Split 1-2 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.85
No
59%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.85
6+ Goals
8%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 34% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.8pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.4pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.7pp
59%
BTTS No
50%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.30/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.10
+33% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 72%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
17.3 Crosses 19.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Osijek
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.42 xG 0.91
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
289 Passes 300
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
08.11.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-1 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
22.10.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 0-2 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
13.05.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
12.03.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-2 HT 0-2 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
01.03.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-2 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
1-2
AWAY Osijek
1.95 xG 0.95
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
341 Passes 271
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek nicked a narrow win over Hajduk Split 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 55% of the ball to Osijek's 45%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.95 to 0.95 — the balance of chances actually favoured Hajduk Split.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.67 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Osijek?

Hajduk Split 1-2 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 45%, draw 30%, Osijek 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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