Club America 5-1 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.48
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 28% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.6pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club America EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.57/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.53
+7% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
353 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
19.3 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club America
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Toluca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.99 xG 1.14
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
421 Passes 316
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-1 Club America Club America MEK
15.01.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-2 HT 2-1 Club America Club America MEK
23.10.2022 Club America Club America 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
20.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 2-0 Club America Club America MEK
14.07.2022 Club America Club America 1-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
21.03.2022 Club America Club America 3-0 HT 3-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club America
5-1
AWAY Toluca
4.86 xG 1.11
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
322 Passes 423
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Club America vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club America ran out comfortable winners over Toluca 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Club America as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Club America had 43% of the ball to Toluca's 57%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 4.86 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Club America and 1.00 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Club America vs Toluca?

Club America 5-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club America vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Club America 47%, draw 28%, Toluca 25%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Club America) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Club America) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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