Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 27% vs market 19.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-2.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.8pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +12%
1.54/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.32
+7% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
21.6 Crosses 15.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.18 xG 1.20
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
253 Passes 316
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
12.02.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
31.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.01.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 2-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
19.09.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
10.05.2021 Pachuca Pachuca 4-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
0-1
AWAY Guadalajara
0.91 xG 0.37
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 1
325 Passes 254
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara squeezed past Pachuca 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Pachuca at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Pachuca had 55% of the ball to Guadalajara's 45%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 0.91 to 0.37 — on chances, Pachuca could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pachuca and 0.83 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Guadalajara?

Pachuca 0-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 43%, draw 25%, Guadalajara 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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