FK Orenburg 3-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.52
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.71
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.91
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
11%
4.28
X/2
13%
6.9
X/X
11%
4.01
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
14%
5.68
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.2pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.6pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.72/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.27
+4% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
23.9 Crosses 15.2
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Pari Nizhny Novgorod
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.95 xG 0.88
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
316 Passes 266
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
30.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod RUS
18.09.2022 Pari Nizhny Novgorod Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0-2 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg beat Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FK Orenburg as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FK Orenburg and 1.00 for Pari Nizhny Novgorod.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

FK Orenburg 3-1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod in the Russia - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 45%, draw 24%, Pari Nizhny Novgorod 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Orenburg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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