Ural 2-1 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
38%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.42
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.15
1/2
7%
24.85
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1 EV+ ✓
17%
7.15
X/2
10%
4.64
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.8
2/X
8%
12.95
Value flag · X/1 at 7.15 — our 17% vs market 10.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
28%
+9.3pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
38%
Away Win
45%
-6.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ural EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 49%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.41/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.42
+4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
279 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 75%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
22.0 Crosses 15.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ural
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.85 xG 1.65
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
288 Passes 349
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-1 HT 1-0 Ural Ural RUS
18.03.2023 Ural Ural 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
03.09.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-1 HT 1-1 Ural Ural RUS
30.04.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-3 HT 1-2 Ural Ural RUS
21.08.2021 Ural Ural 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
11.04.2021 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-2 HT 0-1 Ural Ural RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ural
2-1
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.47 xG 0.58
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
212 Passes 305
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 9
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ural vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ural squeezed past Dinamo Moscow 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Ural found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Ural had 44% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 56%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.47 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ural and 1.67 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of Ural vs Dinamo Moscow?

Ural 2-1 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ural vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ural 37%, draw 24%, Dinamo Moscow 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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