Fakel 0-1 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

Fakel
0-1 HT 0-0
Rostov
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.67
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
5.39
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
4.36
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.3
X/1
14%
5.51
X/2
7%
5.02
X/X
11%
3.62
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.82
2/X
10%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
34%
+7.9pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.5pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.6pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.03/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.29
-17% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +38%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
274 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 75%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
24.0 Crosses 20.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Rostov
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 1.38
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
162 Passes 302
61% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 1
23.07.2023 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 1-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
06.05.2023 Rostov Rostov 0-2 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
22.10.2022 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
0-1
AWAY Rostov
0.51 xG 1.14
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 1
133 Passes 229
51% Pass Accuracy 61%
15 Box Touches 42
8 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov edged past Fakel 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fakel at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Fakel had 41% of the ball to Rostov's 59%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.51 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fakel and 1.00 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Rostov?

Fakel 0-1 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fakel 42%, draw 26%, Rostov 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fakel) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fakel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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