Crotone 3-2 Foggia Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 14 Apr 2025

📅14/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
54%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.8
Over
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.99
2-3
37%
1.75
4-5
27%
3.6
6+
9%
15.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Crotone win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
63%
-8.9pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.8pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+6.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.7pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crotone EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Foggia Calcio EU Bookmakers 18%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -19%
1.85/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.75
+7% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
423 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crotone
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Foggia Calcio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio 1-1 HT 1-1 Crotone Crotone İTC
26.02.2024 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio 2-1 HT 0-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
21.10.2023 Crotone Crotone 2-1 HT 1-1 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
31.05.2023 Crotone Crotone 2-2 HT 2-0 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
27.05.2023 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
11.02.2023 Crotone Crotone 1-1 HT 0-0 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crotone
3-2
AWAY Foggia Calcio
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Crotone vs Foggia Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crotone edged past Foggia Calcio 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Crotone as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Crotone had 56% of the ball to Foggia Calcio's 44%, shots finished 11-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Foggia Calcio led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Crotone and 1.33 for Foggia Calcio.

What was the final score of Crotone vs Foggia Calcio?

Crotone 3-2 Foggia Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crotone vs Foggia Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Crotone 54%, draw 25%, Foggia Calcio 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crotone) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crotone) ✗ BTTS No
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