Bastia 5-2 Stade Lavallois — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 14 Apr 2025

📅14/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.75
Over
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.9
2-3
36%
1.77
4-5
21%
3.86
6+
11%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.9 — our 32% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.19
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.35
X/1
16%
4.07
X/2
5%
9.99
X/X
15%
4.84
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
8.54
2/X
6%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.6pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bastia EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Lavallois EU Bookmakers 22%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.77/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.54
+4% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
386 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
23.2 Crosses 17.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bastia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Stade Lavallois
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.23 xG 1.37
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
302 Passes 263
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.11.2024 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 2-2 HT 1-1 Bastia Bastia FR2
30.03.2024 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 1-2 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
16.09.2023 Bastia Bastia 0-3 HT 0-1 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
06.05.2023 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 2-1 HT 2-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
30.07.2022 Bastia Bastia 0-2 HT 0-1 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois FR2
06.04.2021 Stade Lavallois Stade Lavallois 0-1 HT 0-1 Bastia Bastia FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bastia
5-2
AWAY Stade Lavallois
3.19 xG 0.75
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
396 Passes 273
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bastia vs Stade Lavallois
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia ran out comfortable winners over Stade Lavallois 5-2. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bastia as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Bastia had 57% of the ball to Stade Lavallois's 43%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 3.19 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stade Lavallois led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bastia and 1.67 for Stade Lavallois.

What was the final score of Bastia vs Stade Lavallois?

Bastia 5-2 Stade Lavallois in the France - Ligue 2 on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bastia vs Stade Lavallois?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Bastia 52%, draw 27%, Stade Lavallois 21%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bastia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bastia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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