Mafra vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mafra v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Mafra vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Mafra
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Mafra
POR2
3-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
Mafra 4-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Mafra got the better of Penafiel 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 34%) promised a tight game; Mafra found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Mafra had 51% of the ball to Penafiel's 49%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 2.31 to 1.19.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mafra and 0.83 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Mafra vs Penafiel?
Mafra 4-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mafra vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Mafra 36%, draw 30%, Penafiel 34%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mafra) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.