Mafra vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mafra v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Mafra vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Mafra
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Mafra
POR2
3-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
2-1
HT 0-0
Mafra
POR2
1-0
HT 1-0
Penafiel
POR2
Mafra 0-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel nicked a narrow win over Mafra 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Mafra at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
On the day, Mafra had 61% of the ball to Penafiel's 39%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.30 to 0.87.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mafra and 0.83 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Mafra vs Penafiel?
Mafra 0-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mafra vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mafra 45%, draw 26%, Penafiel 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Mafra) went the other way.