Porto II 2-1 Vilaverdense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.62
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 25% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.4pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+3.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
2.04/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.11
+17% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +24%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.7 Crosses 17.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Vilaverdense
5.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
3.49 xG 0.30
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
401 Passes 252
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
30.10.2023 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense 0-5 HT 0-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
2-1
AWAY Vilaverdense
1.91 xG 1.95
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
344 Passes 243
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Porto II vs Vilaverdense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto II nicked a narrow win over Vilaverdense 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto II as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Porto II had 57% of the ball to Vilaverdense's 43%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.91 to 1.95.

What was the final score of Porto II vs Vilaverdense?

Porto II 2-1 Vilaverdense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs Vilaverdense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Porto II 54%, draw 24%, Vilaverdense 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto II), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Porto II) ✓ Over 2.5
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