Penafiel 1-1 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.6
Over 2.5
47%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.48
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
4.56
6+ Goals
9%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +6%
1.30/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.41
-2% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.6 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Mafra
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.16 xG 0.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
260 Passes 324
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Mafra Mafra 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
27.10.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
05.02.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
15.08.2022 Mafra Mafra 3-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
26.02.2022 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
03.10.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 2-1 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-1
AWAY Mafra
1.78 xG 1.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
147 Passes 219
61% Pass Accuracy 71%
11 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel and Mafra couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Penafiel had 48% of the ball to Mafra's 52%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.78 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Penafiel and 0.83 for Mafra.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Mafra?

Penafiel 1-1 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 40%, draw 31%, Mafra 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Penafiel), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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