Tondela 2-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.22
6+ Goals
10%
21.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 31%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.32/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.06
-9% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses 19.9
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.01 xG 1.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
301 Passes 367
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2024 Tondela Tondela 1-1 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
26.08.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 5-1 HT 4-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
02.05.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR
18.12.2021 Tondela Tondela 0-1 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
18.05.2021 Tondela Tondela 2-3 HT 2-2 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
06.02.2021 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
2-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.52 xG 0.94
42% Ball Possession 58%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
196 Passes 321
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Crosses 29
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela edged past Paços De Ferreira 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Tondela had 42% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 58%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.52 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tondela and 2.17 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira?

Tondela 2-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Tondela 45%, draw 26%, Paços De Ferreira 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tondela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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