Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tondela v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals
Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-1
HT 4-0
Tondela
POR2
1-1
HT 0-1
Tondela
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Paços De Ferreira
POR
2-3
HT 2-2
Paços De Ferreira
POR
2-1
HT 1-0
Tondela
POR
Tondela 2-1 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics
Tondela edged past Paços De Ferreira 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Tondela had 42% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 58%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.52 to 0.94.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tondela and 2.17 for Paços De Ferreira.
What was the final score of Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira?
Tondela 2-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tondela vs Paços De Ferreira?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Tondela 45%, draw 26%, Paços De Ferreira 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.