Porto II 2-1 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.97
Over 2.5
43%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.54
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.26
6+ Goals
8%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 30% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-10.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.2pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 24%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.74/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.64
+1% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -20%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.9 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 1.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
330 Passes 262
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Porto II Porto II 0-1 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
02.12.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-3 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
12.02.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-1 HT 1-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
21.08.2022 Porto II Porto II 2-0 HT 2-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
14.02.2021 Porto II Porto II 1-2 HT 1-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
23.09.2020 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-2 HT 1-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
2-1
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.47 xG 0.85
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
404 Passes 242
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto II vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto II squeezed past UD Oliveirense 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Porto II as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Porto II had 57% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 43%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.47 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, UD Oliveirense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Porto II and 1.33 for UD Oliveirense.

What was the final score of Porto II vs UD Oliveirense?

Porto II 2-1 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Porto II 43%, draw 29%, UD Oliveirense 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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