Porto II 0-1 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.33 — our 26% vs market 18.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.85/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.69
+8% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses 15.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.36 xG 1.08
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
327 Passes 268
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
02.12.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-3 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
12.02.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-1 HT 1-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
21.08.2022 Porto II Porto II 2-0 HT 2-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
14.02.2021 Porto II Porto II 1-2 HT 1-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
23.09.2020 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-2 HT 1-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
01.03.2020 Porto II Porto II 1-2 HT 1-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
0-1
AWAY UD Oliveirense
0.96 xG 0.75
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
348 Passes 236
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto II vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense nicked a narrow win over Porto II 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Porto II at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Porto II had 58% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 42%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 0.96 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, UD Oliveirense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Porto II and 1.50 for UD Oliveirense.

What was the final score of Porto II vs UD Oliveirense?

Porto II 0-1 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Porto II 47%, draw 24%, UD Oliveirense 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Porto II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto II) ✓ BTTS No
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