Paços De Ferreira 1-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 14 Apr 2024

Paços De Ferreira
1-1 HT 0-1
Nacional
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Paços De Ferreira vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.67
6+ Goals
10%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 27% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paços De Ferreira v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 39%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.09/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.52
+3% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.3 Crosses 20.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Paços De Ferreira vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paços De Ferreira
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Nacional
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.82 xG 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
238 Passes 270
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
11 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Nacional Nacional 2-1 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
05.03.2021 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR
24.10.2020 Nacional Nacional 1-1 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
13.03.2017 Nacional Nacional 1-1 HT 0-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
25.10.2016 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 4-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional PORLC
21.10.2016 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR

Paços De Ferreira 1-1 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paços De Ferreira
1-1
AWAY Nacional
1.66 xG 1.43
61% Ball Possession 39%
25 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
378 Passes 210
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paços De Ferreira vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira and Nacional shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Paços De Ferreira at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 61% of the ball to Nacional's 39%, shots finished 25-11, expected goals 1.66 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.00 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Nacional?

Paços De Ferreira 1-1 Nacional in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 41%, draw 28%, Nacional 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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