Ümraniyespor 1-1 Esenler Erokspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 14 Apr 2025

📅14/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.86
Over
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.36
2-3
40%
1.84
4-5
20%
3.68
6+
10%
14.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.36
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
11%
5.34
X/2
13%
6.37
X/X
12%
4.62
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
13%
4.42
2/X
11%
13.2
Value flag · 2/X at 13.2 — our 11% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.7pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.1pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 36%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.26/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.33
-11% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -27%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
18.0 Crosses 11.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.93 xG 1.41
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
324 Passes 402
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 0
09.12.2024 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
1-1
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
0.74 xG 0.68
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
395 Passes 499
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 8
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor and Esenler Erokspor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 46% of the ball to Esenler Erokspor's 54%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.74 to 0.68.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?

Ümraniyespor 1-1 Esenler Erokspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ümraniyespor win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 37%, draw 30%, Esenler Erokspor 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ümraniyespor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ümraniyespor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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