Girona 0-1 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 14 May 2024

📅14/05/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.98
Over 2.5
57%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.39
No
46%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
7.56
2-3 Goals
37%
2.26
4-5 Goals
26%
2.42
6+ Goals
14%
4.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.0
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
23%
4.48
X/2
7%
10.45
X/X
10%
7.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
18.15
2/2
11%
6.3
2/X
9%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.15 — our 13% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-6.1pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
30%
+13.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
70%
-13.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
68%
-13.4pp
46%
BTTS No
32%
+13.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 25%
+14% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.85/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.61
+49% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
427 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
21.5 Crosses 13.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Villarreal
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.19 xG 2.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
315 Passes 438
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 26
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.09.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
20.05.2023 Girona Girona 1-2 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
22.01.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 1-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
26.01.2021 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İSPK
22.01.2020 Girona Girona 0-3 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İSPK
14.04.2019 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
0-1
AWAY Villarreal
1.71 xG 0.62
66% Ball Possession 34%
22 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
696 Passes 322
93% Pass Accuracy 83%
49 Box Touches 19
35 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Girona vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal nicked a narrow win over Girona 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Girona at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Girona had 66% of the ball to Villarreal's 34%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 1.71 to 0.62 — the balance of chances actually favoured Girona.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Girona and 1.50 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Girona vs Villarreal?

Girona 0-1 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 14/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Girona 51%, draw 25%, Villarreal 24%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Girona) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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