Gimnasia La Plata 3-1 Velez Sarsfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 14 May 2024

📅14/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.55
6+ Goals
10%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.6
1/2
8%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.55
X/1
9%
6.04
X/2
13%
4.94
X/X
11%
3.87
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.46
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.5pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.23/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.19
+20% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
232 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 77%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.7 Crosses 17.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimnasia La Plata
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.09 xG 1.47
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
193 Passes 386
66% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 3-1 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
14.09.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 2-1 HT 0-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
31.01.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 3-1 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
14.08.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-1 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
14.09.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 0-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
08.05.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 0-5 HT 0-3 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gimnasia La Plata
3-1
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
1.80 xG 1.35
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
196 Passes 320
67% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gimnasia La Plata vs Velez Sarsfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gimnasia La Plata got the better of Velez Sarsfield 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Gimnasia La Plata found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gimnasia La Plata had 41% of the ball to Velez Sarsfield's 59%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.80 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Velez Sarsfield led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 2.17 for Velez Sarsfield.

What was the final score of Gimnasia La Plata vs Velez Sarsfield?

Gimnasia La Plata 3-1 Velez Sarsfield in the Argentina - Premier League on 14/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimnasia La Plata vs Velez Sarsfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gimnasia La Plata win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Gimnasia La Plata 35%, draw 30%, Velez Sarsfield 35%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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