De Graafschap 2-3 ADO Den Haag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 14 May 2024

📅14/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.0
2-3 Goals
44%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 25% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.01
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
14%
5.08
X/2
16%
6.63
X/X
15%
4.98
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
12%
4.39
2/X
6%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
43%
-7.6pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.4pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +13%
1.31/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.13
-23% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
24.9 Crosses 18.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
1W-3D-2L
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 0.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
368 Passes 300
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.01.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 5-3 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
11.08.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
21.04.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
21.10.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.01.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 0-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.10.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
2-3
AWAY ADO Den Haag
1.59 xG 1.18
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
271 Passes 255
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 25
28 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADO Den Haag edged past De Graafschap 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; ADO Den Haag found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, De Graafschap had 52% of the ball to ADO Den Haag's 48%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.59 to 1.18 — on chances, De Graafschap could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ADO Den Haag led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for De Graafschap and 1.33 for ADO Den Haag.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?

De Graafschap 2-3 ADO Den Haag in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 14/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 36%, draw 30%, ADO Den Haag 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (De Graafschap), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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