ADO Den Haag 5-3 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Jan 2024

📅12/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.83
6+ Goals
13%
8.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.6
1/2
10%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
14%
4.74
X/2
11%
7.49
X/X
11%
5.45
2/1
7%
21.75
2/2
10%
4.92
2/X
8%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.0pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.5pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -26%
1.45/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.44
+1% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -31%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
24.0 Crosses 18.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
1W-4D-1L
AWAY De Graafschap
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.96 xG 1.21
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
273 Passes 373
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.08.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
21.04.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
21.10.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.01.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 0-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.10.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
01.03.2019 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 0-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
5-3
AWAY De Graafschap
2.50 xG 1.77
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
345 Passes 255
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADO Den Haag saw off De Graafschap 5-3. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had ADO Den Haag as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 57% of the ball to De Graafschap's 43%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 2.50 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for ADO Den Haag and 0.67 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?

ADO Den Haag 5-3 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 43%, draw 26%, De Graafschap 31%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ADO Den Haag), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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