Telstar 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Jan 2024

📅12/01/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.63
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.98
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
19%
4.84
X/2
11%
6.47
X/X
11%
4.93
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
14%
4.46
2/X
7%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.3pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Telstar EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +12%
1.43/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.47
-4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
21.6 Crosses 11.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Telstar
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 0.94
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
278 Passes 426
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.08.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
13.01.2023 Telstar Telstar 1-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
24.10.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-0 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
07.03.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-2 HT 2-2 Telstar Telstar HOL2
24.09.2021 Telstar Telstar 1-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
22.01.2021 Telstar Telstar 2-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Telstar
1-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.22 xG 0.28
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
336 Passes 378
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Telstar vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Telstar and AZ Alkmaar II shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Telstar at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Telstar had 49% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 51%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.22 to 0.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Telstar and 1.33 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Telstar vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Telstar 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Telstar vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Telstar win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Telstar 42%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar II 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Telstar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Telstar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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