14/06/2025
·
20:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
0-1
Erbil vs Newroz Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
4%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
37%
30%
Draw
30%
43%
Away Win
33%
55%
Under 2.5
60%
45%
Over 2.5
40%
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
57%
BTTS No
54%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Erbil v Newroz — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Erbil
EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY
Newroz
EU Bookmakers 37%
+42% /
+42%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+7% /
+7%
3.00/2.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.97/1.16
+150%
/
-52%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+109%
/
-20%
48%
Ball Possession
52%
12
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
4
276 · 72%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
325 · 73%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Erbil vs Newroz Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Erbil
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Newroz
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Erbil vs Newroz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Newroz nicked a narrow win over Erbil 1-0 away from home.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Newroz as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.
What was the final score of Erbil vs Newroz?
Erbil 0-1 Newroz in the Iraq - Premier League on 14/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Erbil vs Newroz?
Before kick-off our model rated an Newroz win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Erbil 27%, draw 30%, Newroz 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newroz), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Newroz)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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14 Jun 2025