Melgar vs Sport Boys Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melgar v Sport Boys — Team-Based Signals
Melgar vs Sport Boys Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-2
Melgar
PER
2-0
HT 1-0
Sport Boys
PER
3-0
HT 0-0
Sport Boys
PER
0-1
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys — Actual Match Statistics
Melgar nicked a narrow win over Sport Boys 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Melgar had 62% of the ball to Sport Boys's 38%, shots finished 16-2, expected goals 1.66 to 0.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melgar's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Melgar and 0.17 for Sport Boys.
What was the final score of Melgar vs Sport Boys?
Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys in the Peru - Premier League on 14/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melgar vs Sport Boys?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Melgar 57%, draw 22%, Sport Boys 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.