Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 14 Jun 2025

📅14/06/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
20%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
5%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
73%
-15.3pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.6pp
20%
Away Win
10%
+10.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.2pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Boys EU Bookmakers 12%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
2.03/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.92
-2% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 211 · 71%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
23.1 Crosses 13.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Sport Boys
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
2.02 xG 0.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
304 Passes 235
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.10.2024 Sport Boys Sport Boys 0-2 HT 0-2 Melgar Melgar PER
05.05.2024 Melgar Melgar 2-1 HT 1-0 Sport Boys Sport Boys PER
31.07.2023 Sport Boys Sport Boys 0-2 HT 0-2 Melgar Melgar PER
12.05.2023 Melgar Melgar 2-0 HT 1-0 Sport Boys Sport Boys PER
20.10.2022 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 0-0 Sport Boys Sport Boys PER
19.06.2022 Sport Boys Sport Boys 0-1 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
2-1
AWAY Sport Boys
1.66 xG 0.26
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 2
8 Shots on Target 2
13 Corners 1
326 Passes 182
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 8
30 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Sport Boys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar nicked a narrow win over Sport Boys 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Melgar had 62% of the ball to Sport Boys's 38%, shots finished 16-2, expected goals 1.66 to 0.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melgar's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Melgar and 0.17 for Sport Boys.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Sport Boys?

Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys in the Peru - Premier League on 14/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Sport Boys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Melgar 57%, draw 22%, Sport Boys 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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