Gremio 3-1 Operario PR — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.51
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.71
6+ Goals
11%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
58%
-13.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
27%
Away Win
17%
+10.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.0pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Operario PR EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-21% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.7 Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Operario PR
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.61 xG 0.58
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
268 Passes 334
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.05.2024 Operario PR Operario PR 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
10.08.2022 Gremio Gremio 5-1 HT 1-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
28.04.2022 Operario PR Operario PR 0-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
3-1
AWAY Operario PR
1.28 xG 0.54
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
291 Passes 423
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 13
8 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Operario PR
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio beat Operario PR 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 42% of the ball to Operario PR's 58%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.28 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Gremio and 0.33 for Operario PR.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Operario PR?

Gremio 3-1 Operario PR in the Brazil - Cup on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Operario PR?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gremio 45%, draw 28%, Operario PR 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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