Cusco FC 0-3 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
32%
+7.1pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.0pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-4.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cusco FC EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 42%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.26/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.97
+73% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
16.6 Crosses 16.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cusco FC
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Melgar
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.25 xG 2.24
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
207 Passes 376
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.01.2024 Melgar Melgar 2-3 HT 1-2 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
19.08.2023 Cusco FC Cusco FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
01.04.2023 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 1-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
04.08.2021 Melgar Melgar 2-2 HT 1-2 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
22.02.2020 Cusco FC Cusco FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Melgar Melgar PER
24.08.2019 Melgar Melgar 2-1 HT 1-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cusco FC
0-3
AWAY Melgar
0.58 xG 1.39
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
425 Passes 236
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cusco FC vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar ran out comfortable winners over Cusco FC 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Melgar made the difference. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Cusco FC had 64% of the ball to Melgar's 36%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.58 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cusco FC had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cusco FC and 1.50 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Cusco FC vs Melgar?

Cusco FC 0-3 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cusco FC vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cusco FC win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Cusco FC 39%, draw 26%, Melgar 34%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Cusco FC), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cusco FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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