Guabira 0-1 Santa Cruz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 14 Aug 2024

📅14/08/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-3.2pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.8pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+3.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.7pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guabira EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Cruz EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -13%
1.61/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.20
+7% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 72%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
21.1 Crosses 14.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guabira
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Santa Cruz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 0.68
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
263 Passes 174
74% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
08.03.2024 Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 1-1 HT 1-0 Guabira Guabira BOLİ
25.02.2024 Guabira Guabira 1-2 HT 0-1 Santa Cruz Santa Cruz BOLİ
10.08.2023 Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 1-3 HT 1-2 Guabira Guabira BOLPLK
30.07.2023 Guabira Guabira 1-2 HT 0-1 Santa Cruz Santa Cruz BOLİ
25.02.2023 Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 0-0 HT 0-0 Guabira Guabira BOLİ
22.04.2022 Guabira Guabira 1-0 HT 0-0 Santa Cruz Santa Cruz BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guabira
0-1
AWAY Santa Cruz
1.72 xG 0.79
61% Ball Possession 39%
25 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 4
233 Passes 116
70% Pass Accuracy 53%
35 Box Touches 16
39 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Guabira vs Santa Cruz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Cruz squeezed past Guabira 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Guabira at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guabira had 61% of the ball to Santa Cruz's 39%, shots finished 25-9, expected goals 1.72 to 0.79 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guabira.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Guabira and 1.00 for Santa Cruz.

What was the final score of Guabira vs Santa Cruz?

Guabira 0-1 Santa Cruz in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 14/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guabira vs Santa Cruz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guabira win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Guabira 56%, draw 21%, Santa Cruz 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Guabira), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guabira) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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