AC Milan (K) 1-2 Fiorentina (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
49%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.03
Over 2.5
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.63
No
55%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
4%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
33%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.0pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.2pp
49%
Away Win
45%
+4.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
57%
-12.4pp
55%
BTTS No
43%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Milan (K) EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina (K) EU Bookmakers 49%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.45/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.52
+85% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.0 Crosses 14.0
0.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Milan (K)
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Fiorentina (K)
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.34 xG 1.02
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
239 Passes 223
70% Pass Accuracy 68%
25 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
03.02.2024 AC Milan (K) AC Milan (K) 2-2 HT 2-1 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) İTKSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Milan (K)
1-2
AWAY Fiorentina (K)
1.30 xG 1.33
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
365 Passes 230
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AC Milan (K) vs Fiorentina (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina (K) squeezed past AC Milan (K) 2-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fiorentina (K) as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, AC Milan (K) had 58% of the ball to Fiorentina (K)'s 42%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.30 to 1.33.

What was the final score of AC Milan (K) vs Fiorentina (K)?

AC Milan (K) 1-2 Fiorentina (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Milan (K) vs Fiorentina (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split AC Milan (K) 29%, draw 21%, Fiorentina (K) 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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