SGV Freiberg 1-1 Lehnerz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.03
Over 2.5
43%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.5pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
45%
+11.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
55%
-11.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.8pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Lehnerz EU Bookmakers 34%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -25%
1.17/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.95
-31% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
492 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Lehnerz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
24.02.2024 Lehnerz Lehnerz 1-0 HT 1-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
19.08.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 0-4 HT 0-2 Lehnerz Lehnerz ALMBÖL
19.11.2022 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 3-1 HT 2-0 Lehnerz Lehnerz ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Lehnerz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg and Lehnerz shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was SGV Freiberg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lehnerz led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for SGV Freiberg and 2.00 for Lehnerz.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Lehnerz?

SGV Freiberg 1-1 Lehnerz in the Germany - Regional League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Lehnerz?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 42%, draw 30%, Lehnerz 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (SGV Freiberg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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