Boussu Dour Borinage 1-3 Lommel United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.51
6+ Goals
9%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 27% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+1.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lommel United EU Bookmakers 49%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.90/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.08
-23% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
18.7 Crosses 15.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Lommel United
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.55 xG 1.17
30% Ball Possession 70%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
227 Passes 636
76% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2024 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage 1-2 HT 0-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2
24.09.2023 Lommel United Lommel United 3-0 HT 1-0 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage
1-3
AWAY Lommel United
0.73 xG 2.74
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
334 Passes 384
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lommel United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lommel United beat Boussu Dour Borinage 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lommel United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Boussu Dour Borinage had 47% of the ball to Lommel United's 53%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.73 to 2.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lommel United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Boussu Dour Borinage and 2.50 for Lommel United.

What was the final score of Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lommel United?

Boussu Dour Borinage 1-3 Lommel United in the Belgium - 1st Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boussu Dour Borinage vs Lommel United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lommel United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Boussu Dour Borinage 29%, draw 28%, Lommel United 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lommel United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lommel United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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