14/09/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-0
2nd Score
2-1
Leamington vs Carlton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
23%
Draw
19%
22%
Away Win
14%
43%
Under 2.5
40%
57%
Over 2.5
60%
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
51%
BTTS No
49%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Leamington v Carlton Town — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Leamington
EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY
Carlton Town
EU Bookmakers 17%
-29% /
-29%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-19%
/
+68%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
55%
Ball Possession
45%
16
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
4
439 · 81%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
313 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
0.0
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Leamington vs Carlton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Leamington squeezed past Carlton Town 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Leamington as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Leamington vs Carlton Town?
Leamington 1-0 Carlton Town in the England - FA Cup on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Leamington vs Carlton Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a Leamington win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Leamington 55%, draw 23%, Carlton Town 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leamington), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Leamington)
✗ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
FAK
More England - FA Cup
14 Sep 2024