Auxerre 0-3 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Sep 2024

Auxerre
0-3 HT 0-2
Monaco
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Auxerre vs Monaco Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.76
2-3 Goals
43%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
7.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.76 — our 25% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.16
1/2
7%
21.1
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
8%
9.09
X/2
14%
4.41
X/X
12%
5.7
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.25
2/X
5%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+7.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
46%
Away Win
53%
-7.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auxerre v Monaco — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco EU Bookmakers 57%
+11% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.59/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.11
-4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -12%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 82%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
19.6 Crosses 17.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Auxerre vs Monaco Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Monaco
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.38 xG 1.29
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
358 Passes 397
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
01.02.2023 Monaco Monaco 3-2 HT 2-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
28.12.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 2-3 HT 1-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
13.04.2013 Auxerre Auxerre 0-2 HT 0-2 Monaco Monaco FR2
10.11.2012 Monaco Monaco 2-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
15.01.2011 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 1-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
29.08.2010 Monaco Monaco 2-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1

Auxerre 0-3 Monaco — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
0-3
AWAY Monaco
0.56 xG 3.49
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 6
321 Passes 482
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 33
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Monaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco swept aside Auxerre 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Auxerre had 41% of the ball to Monaco's 59%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 0.56 to 3.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Auxerre and 2.17 for Monaco.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Monaco?

Auxerre 0-3 Monaco in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Monaco?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 30%, draw 24%, Monaco 46%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monaco) ✗ BTTS Yes
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