Marsilya 2-0 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Sep 2024

Marsilya
2-0 HT 1-0
Nice
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Marsilya vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.86
Over 2.5
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.76
No
43%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.59
6+ Goals
12%
14.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.59 — our 26% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.51
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
14%
4.28
X/2
7%
8.05
X/X
11%
4.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
24.85
2/2
14%
6.11
2/X
8%
14.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 11% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-3.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-5.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+5.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.3pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marsilya v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.52/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.43
+2% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +36%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
392 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
19.0 Crosses 14.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Marsilya vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nice
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.89 xG 1.38
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
435 Passes 358
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.04.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-2 HT 1-1 Nice Nice FR1
21.10.2023 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
05.02.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-3 HT 0-2 Nice Nice FR1
28.08.2022 Nice Nice 0-3 HT 0-3 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
20.03.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
09.02.2022 Nice Nice 4-1 HT 2-1 Marsilya Marsilya FRK

Marsilya 2-0 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
2-0
AWAY Nice
0.67 xG 2.05
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
424 Passes 329
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya beat Nice 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Marsilya had 56% of the ball to Nice's 44%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.67 to 2.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured Nice.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Marsilya and 1.83 for Nice.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Nice?

Marsilya 2-0 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 46%, draw 26%, Nice 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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