PSG 3-1 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 14 Sep 2024

PSG
3-1 HT 1-1
Brest
📅14/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

PSG vs Brest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.32
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.47
2-3 Goals
37%
2.01
4-5 Goals
30%
2.66
6+ Goals
14%
6.44
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.51
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
21.45
X/1
19%
3.56
X/2
5%
18.65
X/X
10%
8.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.9
2/2
10%
13.7
2/X
5%
21.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
72%
-15.4pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.7pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+8.8pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.0pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Brest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest EU Bookmakers 14%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
2.21/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.04
+26% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +34%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
481 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 79%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
15.6 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

PSG vs Brest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Brest
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.15 xG 0.96
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
545 Passes 324
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.02.2024 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FRK
28.01.2024 PSG PSG 2-2 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FR1
29.10.2023 Brest Brest 2-3 HT 1-2 PSG PSG FR1
11.03.2023 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 1-1 PSG PSG FR1
10.09.2022 PSG PSG 1-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
15.01.2022 PSG PSG 2-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1

PSG 3-1 Brest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
3-1
AWAY Brest
2.88 xG 0.97
67% Ball Possession 33%
22 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
623 Passes 253
92% Pass Accuracy 76%
42 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PSG vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG beat Brest 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, PSG had 67% of the ball to Brest's 33%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 2.88 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for PSG and 1.00 for Brest.

What was the final score of PSG vs Brest?

PSG 3-1 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split PSG 56%, draw 24%, Brest 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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