CD Castellon 3-3 Ceuta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 14 Sep 2025

CD Castellon
3-3 HT 2-1
Ceuta
📅14/09/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

CD Castellon vs Ceuta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
17%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.7
No
41%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.12
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
14%
8.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.89
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.95
X/1
15%
4.09
X/2
6%
11.2
X/X
13%
6.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.45
2/2
5%
8.69
2/X
7%
16.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.45 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-2.3pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.2pp
17%
Away Win
17%
+0.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
55%
+4.2pp
41%
BTTS No
45%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CD Castellon v Ceuta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceuta EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
2.25/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/3.29
+10% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -58%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
34.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
22.5 Crosses 17.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

CD Castellon vs Ceuta Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Castellon
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Ceuta
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.02.2024 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-2 HT 0-0 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
15.10.2023 Ceuta Ceuta 1-3 HT 1-2 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS3

CD Castellon 3-3 Ceuta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CD Castellon
3-3
AWAY Ceuta
1.89 xG 0.81
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 6
319 Passes 187
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
38 Box Touches 15
35 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CD Castellon vs Ceuta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon and Ceuta couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. CD Castellon carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, CD Castellon had 61% of the ball to Ceuta's 39%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.89 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, CD Castellon had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for CD Castellon and 1.50 for Ceuta.

What was the final score of CD Castellon vs Ceuta?

CD Castellon 3-3 Ceuta in the Spain - 2nd Division on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Castellon vs Ceuta?

Before kick-off our model rated a CD Castellon win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split CD Castellon 58%, draw 24%, Ceuta 17%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (CD Castellon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CD Castellon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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