Ourense CF 1-2 Talavera CF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
4.42
6+ Goals
8%
24.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.36 — our 36% vs market 33.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.8pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Talavera CF EU Bookmakers 32%
+13% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -13%
1.22/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.24
-4% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
348 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
POST-MATCH Ourense CF vs Talavera CF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Talavera CF nicked a narrow win over Ourense CF 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ourense CF at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Ourense CF vs Talavera CF?

Ourense CF 1-2 Talavera CF in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ourense CF vs Talavera CF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ourense CF win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ourense CF 43%, draw 29%, Talavera CF 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ourense CF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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