Polonya U21 2-1 İtalya U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — European U21, 14 Nov 2025

📅14/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.61
No
41%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
44%
Away Win
44%
+0.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.9pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonya U21 EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY İtalya U21 EU Bookmakers 48%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +12%
1.19/1.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.92
+17% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +150%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
318 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 82%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
14.0 Crosses 15.3
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonya U21
1W-0D-1L
AWAY İtalya U21
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.40 xG 1.69
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 27
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
240 Passes 368
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 39
6 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.06.2019 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 0-1 HT 0-1 Polonya U21 Polonya U21 U21
23.03.2017 Polonya U21 Polonya U21 1-2 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonya U21
2-1
AWAY İtalya U21
1.19 xG 2.11
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 4
309 Passes 328
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 25
5 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Polonya U21 vs İtalya U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonya U21 nicked a narrow win over İtalya U21 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was İtalya U21 at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Polonya U21 had 48% of the ball to İtalya U21's 52%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 1.19 to 2.11 — the balance of chances actually favoured İtalya U21.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Polonya U21 and 1.00 for İtalya U21.

What was the final score of Polonya U21 vs İtalya U21?

Polonya U21 2-1 İtalya U21 in the European U21 on 14/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonya U21 vs İtalya U21?

Before kick-off our model rated an İtalya U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Polonya U21 31%, draw 25%, İtalya U21 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (İtalya U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (İtalya U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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