Poole Town 1-6 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
45%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.23
Over Pick
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
40%
4-5
22%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-1.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.3pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Poole Town EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 50%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.63/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.87
+13% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -28%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Poole Town
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Merthyr Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
06.04.2024 Poole Town Poole Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
28.11.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Poole Town Poole Town İNGNLP
14.03.2023 Poole Town Poole Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
27.08.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Poole Town Poole Town İNGNLP
12.02.2022 Poole Town Poole Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
19.10.2021 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 0-3 HT 0-0 Poole Town Poole Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Poole Town vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town ran out comfortable winners over Poole Town 6-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Poole Town had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Poole Town and 0.67 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Poole Town vs Merthyr Town?

Poole Town 1-6 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Poole Town vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Poole Town 32%, draw 23%, Merthyr Town 45%. The final score 1-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5
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