Poole Town vs Merthyr Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Poole Town v Merthyr Town — Team-Based Signals
Poole Town vs Merthyr Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Poole Town
İNGNLP
2-0
HT 1-0
Merthyr Town
İNGNLP
1-2
HT 1-1
Poole Town
İNGNLP
2-0
HT 2-0
Merthyr Town
İNGNLP
0-3
HT 0-0
Poole Town
İNGNLP
Merthyr Town ran out comfortable winners over Poole Town 6-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Poole Town had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Poole Town and 0.67 for Merthyr Town.
What was the final score of Poole Town vs Merthyr Town?
Poole Town 1-6 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Poole Town vs Merthyr Town?
Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Poole Town 32%, draw 23%, Merthyr Town 45%. The final score 1-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.