Poole Town vs Merthyr Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Poole Town v Merthyr Town — Team-Based Signals
Poole Town vs Merthyr Town Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Poole Town
İNGNLP
2-0
HT 1-0
Merthyr Town
İNGNLP
1-2
HT 1-1
Poole Town
İNGNLP
2-0
HT 2-0
Merthyr Town
İNGNLP
0-3
HT 0-0
Poole Town
İNGNLP
Merthyr Town got the better of Poole Town 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Poole Town had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Poole Town and 0.20 for Merthyr Town.
What was the final score of Poole Town vs Merthyr Town?
Poole Town 1-3 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Poole Town vs Merthyr Town?
Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Poole Town 30%, draw 20%, Merthyr Town 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.