Poole Town 1-3 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
49%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.51
Over
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
42%
4-5
28%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.0pp
20%
Draw
23%
-2.9pp
49%
Away Win
43%
+5.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.0pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Poole Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 48%
+14% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.25/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.48
+50% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 0.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Poole Town
5W-0D-0L
AWAY Merthyr Town
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.20
28.11.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Poole Town Poole Town İNGNLP
14.03.2023 Poole Town Poole Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
27.08.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Poole Town Poole Town İNGNLP
12.02.2022 Poole Town Poole Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
19.10.2021 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 0-3 HT 0-0 Poole Town Poole Town İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Poole Town vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town got the better of Poole Town 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Poole Town had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Poole Town and 0.20 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Poole Town vs Merthyr Town?

Poole Town 1-3 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Poole Town vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Poole Town 30%, draw 20%, Merthyr Town 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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