AFC Sudbury 2-1 Coalville Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-3.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.1pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Sudbury EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Coalville Town EU Bookmakers 50%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.39/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.74
-4% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
293 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Sudbury
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Coalville Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.11.2023 Coalville Town Coalville Town 0-3 HT 0-2 AFC Sudbury AFC Sudbury İNGNLP
01.10.2022 Coalville Town Coalville Town 3-0 HT 0-0 AFC Sudbury AFC Sudbury FAK
POST-MATCH AFC Sudbury vs Coalville Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Sudbury squeezed past Coalville Town 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Coalville Town at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AFC Sudbury and 1.50 for Coalville Town.

What was the final score of AFC Sudbury vs Coalville Town?

AFC Sudbury 2-1 Coalville Town in the England - Non League Premier on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Sudbury vs Coalville Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Coalville Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AFC Sudbury 30%, draw 27%, Coalville Town 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Coalville Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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