Lugo 0-1 Ponferradina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.48
Over 2.5
36%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.06
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
5.47
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.5pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.8pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-1.7pp
64%
Under 2.5
64%
+0.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
36%
-0.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.5pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugo EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 38%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
0.79/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.86
-32% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugo
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Ponferradina
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.07
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
256 Passes 276
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.03.2024 Ponferradina Ponferradina 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugo Lugo İS3
17.09.2023 Lugo Lugo 0-0 HT 0-0 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS3
02.04.2023 Lugo Lugo 0-0 HT 0-0 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS2
11.12.2022 Ponferradina Ponferradina 1-0 HT 1-0 Lugo Lugo İS2
17.04.2022 Ponferradina Ponferradina 3-1 HT 1-0 Lugo Lugo İS2
06.11.2021 Lugo Lugo 1-2 HT 0-1 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugo
0-1
AWAY Ponferradina
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lugo vs Ponferradina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponferradina squeezed past Lugo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Ponferradina found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lugo had 52% of the ball to Ponferradina's 48%, shots finished 15-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ponferradina led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Lugo and 1.00 for Ponferradina.

What was the final score of Lugo vs Ponferradina?

Lugo 0-1 Ponferradina in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugo vs Ponferradina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lugo 38%, draw 30%, Ponferradina 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lugo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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