Bayer Leverkusen (K) 2-0 Freiburg (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Women's Bundesliga, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
50%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen (K) EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg (K) EU Bookmakers 23%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +65% / +65%
1.64/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.98
-7% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +150%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
428 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
24.0 Crosses 16.1
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen (K)
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Freiburg (K)
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.75 xG 0.72
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
306 Passes 336
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
12 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 1
31.08.2024 Freiburg (K) Freiburg (K) 2-3 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen (K) Bayer Leverkusen (K) ALKB
10.03.2024 Freiburg (K) Freiburg (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen (K) Bayer Leverkusen (K) ALKB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen (K)
2-0
AWAY Freiburg (K)
1.55 xG 0.62
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
229 Passes 250
66% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen (K) vs Freiburg (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen (K) got the better of Freiburg (K) 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayer Leverkusen (K) as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen (K) had 48% of the ball to Freiburg (K)'s 52%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.55 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen (K) had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bayer Leverkusen (K) and 1.00 for Freiburg (K).

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen (K) vs Freiburg (K)?

Bayer Leverkusen (K) 2-0 Freiburg (K) in the Germany - Women's Bundesliga on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen (K) vs Freiburg (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen (K) 49%, draw 23%, Freiburg (K) 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen (K)) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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