Istra 1961 3-3 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
4.19
6+ Goals
8%
21.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.0pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 21%
-14% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +18%
1.05/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.41
-18% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +51%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 74%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
15.5 Crosses 13.3
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Sibenik
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.72 xG 0.88
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
355 Passes 296
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2024 Sibenik Sibenik 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
29.04.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
24.02.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
23.10.2022 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
12.08.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
07.05.2022 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-2 HT 0-2 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
3-3
AWAY Sibenik
2.04 xG 0.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
305 Passes 297
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 and Sibenik shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Istra 1961 at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 51% of the ball to Sibenik's 49%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 2.04 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Istra 1961 and 0.33 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Sibenik?

Istra 1961 3-3 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 51%, draw 26%, Sibenik 23%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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14 Dec 2024
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