Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.34
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
55%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
9%
9.37
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 27% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
16%
+4.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.6pp
55%
Away Win
62%
-7.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 66%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.12/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.76
+41% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +11%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
299 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 80%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
16.3 Crosses 16.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.79 xG 1.75
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
255 Passes 382
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 35
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 5-1 HT 2-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
21.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
10.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
23.01.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0-3 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
29.10.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
08.04.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-2 HT 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
3-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.59 xG 2.12
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 11
170 Passes 339
62% Pass Accuracy 75%
11 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 40
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-1.

This one beat our numbers. Dinamo Zagreb carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 37% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 63%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 1.59 to 2.12 — on chances, Dinamo Zagreb could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 2.00 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 21%, draw 24%, Dinamo Zagreb 55%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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