Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
5.34
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
50%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.55
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 29% vs market 22.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
16%
+9.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.2pp
50%
Away Win
62%
-11.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 66%
+12% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
0.97/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.77
+27% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +16%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 82%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
14.0 Crosses 17.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.80 xG 1.71
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
260 Passes 414
69% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 35
10 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
23.01.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0-3 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
29.10.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
08.04.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-2 HT 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
01.03.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIRK
28.01.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
0-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb nicked a narrow win over Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 40% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 60%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.83 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 26%, draw 25%, Dinamo Zagreb 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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